Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 8.7 | 13.7% | 75 | 0.65% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 10.3 | 19.3% | 106 | 0.78% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 8.4 | 15.1% | 83 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 9.9 | 16.8% | 92 | 0.68% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 5.6 | 11.3% | 62 | 0.59% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 5.1 | 9.5% | 52 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 3.4 | 7.3% | 40 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.9 | 7.1% | 39 | 0.37% |
| All ages | 50 | 55.3 | 100% | 549 | 0.52% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 14585 | 60563 | 504 | 123 | 590 |
| Oct 08 | 14650 | 60688 | 505 | 123 | 594 |
| Oct 09 | 14716 | 60796 | 506 | 124 | 614 |
| Oct 10 | 14778 | 60888 | 507 | 124 | 627 |
| Oct 11 | 14778 | 60959 | 507 | 124 | 542 |
| Oct 12 | 14857 | 61052 | 508 | 124 | 564 |
| Oct 13 | 14907 | 61141 | 510 | 124 | 549 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 9950 | 35623 | 401 | 112 | 611 |
| Oct 08 | 10000 | 35691 | 403 | 112 | 547 |
| Oct 09 | 10036 | 35734 | 403 | 112 | 514 |
| Oct 10 | 10056 | 35792 | 407 | 112 | 471 |
| Oct 11 | 10080 | 35821 | 409 | 112 | 429 |
| Oct 12 | 10135 | 35878 | 416 | 112 | 410 |
| Oct 13 | 10169 | 35933 | 419 | 112 | 418 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.7 | 11% | 46 | 0.59% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 7.4 | 18.9% | 79 | 0.94% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 4.0 | 8.4% | 35 | 0.49% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 6.7 | 15.1% | 63 | 0.75% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.6 | 11.7% | 49 | 0.63% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.1 | 11% | 46 | 0.47% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 5.3 | 11.2% | 47 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 0 | 5.6 | 12.7% | 53 | 0.75% |
| All ages | 34 | 42.4 | 100% | 418 | 0.65% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 7629 | 23686 | 373 | 86 | 394 |
| Oct 08 | 7666 | 23723 | 373 | 86 | 396 |
| Oct 09 | 7717 | 23759 | 374 | 89 | 424 |
| Oct 10 | 7736 | 23789 | 376 | 89 | 365 |
| Oct 11 | 7755 | 23815 | 379 | 89 | 341 |
| Oct 12 | 7765 | 23842 | 380 | 90 | 309 |
| Oct 13 | 7797 | 23884 | 380 | 90 | 311 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 2.7 | 9.6% | 30 | 0.55% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 6.3 | 20.3% | 63 | 1.16% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 3.3 | 10.6% | 33 | 0.73% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 5.0 | 12.2% | 38 | 0.7% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 4.3 | 13.5% | 42 | 0.84% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.0 | 11.9% | 37 | 0.55% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 2.4 | 8.7% | 27 | 0.43% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.0 | 13.2% | 41 | 0.65% |
| All ages | 32 | 32.0 | 100% | 311 | 0.69% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 15556 | 69108 | 622 | 103 | 566 |
| Oct 08 | 15605 | 69314 | 625 | 104 | 558 |
| Oct 09 | 15650 | 69474 | 625 | 104 | 525 |
| Oct 10 | 15671 | 69567 | 625 | 104 | 470 |
| Oct 11 | 15703 | 69645 | 627 | 105 | 462 |
| Oct 12 | 15751 | 69822 | 631 | 106 | 448 |
| Oct 13 | 15791 | 69972 | 633 | 107 | 423 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 6.1 | 13.2% | 56 | 0.47% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 5.6 | 14.4% | 61 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 5.7 | 14.2% | 60 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 7.3 | 16.5% | 70 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 5.3 | 11.6% | 49 | 0.36% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 4.4 | 11.6% | 49 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.9 | 8.7% | 37 | 0.26% |
| 70+ | 2 | 3.6 | 9.7% | 41 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 40 | 40.9 | 100% | 423 | 0.36% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 54011 | 411541 | 1866 | 335 | 1496 |
| Oct 08 | 54183 | 412271 | 1870 | 335 | 1517 |
| Oct 09 | 54350 | 413271 | 1874 | 335 | 1507 |
| Oct 10 | 54418 | 413822 | 1874 | 335 | 1455 |
| Oct 11 | 54470 | 414430 | 1877 | 335 | 1304 |
| Oct 12 | 54699 | 415028 | 1882 | 339 | 1380 |
| Oct 13 | 54817 | 415808 | 1888 | 339 | 1429 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 19 | 15.6 | 11.7% | 167 | 0.28% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 24.3 | 17.6% | 252 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 20.9 | 15.3% | 218 | 0.21% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 22.9 | 17.5% | 250 | 0.33% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 16.0 | 12.7% | 182 | 0.28% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 12.0 | 9.2% | 132 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 11.1 | 9.2% | 131 | 0.24% |
| 70+ | 10 | 9.3 | 6.8% | 97 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 118 | 132.0 | 100% | 1429 | 0.26% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 07 | 745802 | 3409876 | 39816 | 8092 | 26992 |
| Oct 08 | 748854 | 3418430 | 39958 | 8107 | 26959 |
| Oct 09 | 751684 | 3425895 | 40132 | 8138 | 27003 |
| Oct 10 | 752808 | 3431283 | 40201 | 8139 | 25801 |
| Oct 11 | 754054 | 3434968 | 40279 | 8151 | 23675 |
| Oct 12 | 756855 | 3439820 | 40445 | 8194 | 23754 |
| Oct 13 | 759278 | 3447187 | 40599 | 8217 | 24474 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 275 | 243.9 | 10.3% | 2530 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 427 | 447.7 | 18.4% | 4507 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 308 | 290.1 | 12.4% | 3030 | 0.4% |
| 30-39 | 331 | 353.1 | 15% | 3675 | 0.49% |
| 40-49 | 296 | 298.7 | 13% | 3185 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 283 | 268.1 | 11.5% | 2819 | 0.35% |
| 60-69 | 267 | 235.9 | 10.2% | 2487 | 0.33% |
| 70+ | 235 | 211.7 | 9.2% | 2240 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 2423 | 2349.4 | 100% | 24474 | 0.42% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-11-03 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7896"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges